GOP support for Trump drops 15 points in six months

Trump’s grip on the Republican base has weakened, according to a new NBC News analysis. In recent polls, the former president’s share of GOP voters fell from about 80 percent to 65 percent over the past six months, and Republican candidates are losing ground in key swing states.

The shift comes as the party faces a new electorate. Suburban voters, once a reliable source of support, are moving toward more moderate candidates. Trump’s polarizing style and ongoing legal battles have alienated some of his former allies. Meanwhile, younger voters are less likely to align with the former president’s brand of politics. The GOP’s traditional focus on social conservatism is no longer enough to win broad majorities.

The numbers are clear. In New York’s 11th congressional district, a Republican challenger who is not endorsed by Trump won the primary by a margin of 12 points. In Florida, a state that was once a Trump stronghold, the Republican nominee is trailing the Democratic candidate in the general election by 6 percentage points. Polls from the Pew Research Center show that 48 percent of Republican voters say they would not vote for Trump in 2024, up from 35 percent a year ago.

The party’s next move will be to broaden its appeal. GOP leaders are calling for a shift away from Trump‑centric messaging and a return to economic and infrastructure priorities. Trump, for his part, is still rallying his base, but his influence is fading. The 2024 election will test whether the GOP can rebuild a coalition that can win across the country, or whether it will continue to rely on a shrinking, partisan base.