Kazakhstan's future after the elections: Russia, EU or China

On August 23, Kazakhstan , a former Soviet country that has recently adopted a new constitution, will hold elections to its parliament.

The legislative body will be transformed from a two-chamber to a single-chamber system. Citizens will elect 145 members of parliament via party lists. All seven registered parties have been admitted to the election, including the ruling party, Adilet (which translates to "Justice").

But the election result is the least of the campaign's intrigues. Experts DW interviewed agree that no party other than President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev's Adilet stands a chance of winning.

Luca Anceschi, Professor of Eurasian Studies at the University of Glasgow, Scotland, suggests that the new parliament will do the same as the previous one, "which is pretty much to represent whatever the regime wants them to do."

In his view, one should not expect representatives of the genuine opposition to be elected to parliament.

Stefan Meister, Head of the Center for Order and Governance in Eastern Europe, Russia and Central Asia at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), shares this assessment. He says the ruling party is likely to win the election, a scenario also reflected in recent opinion polls.

Both experts agree that these elections are intended to consolidate Tokayev's power and further weaken the bloc led by Nursultan Nazarbayev , the country's president from 1991-2019.

Constitutional amendments approved earlier allow Tokayev to seek another seven-year presidential term in 2029 and replace the two-chamber parliament with a single-chamber assembly called the Kurultai.