ASEAN leaders meet in Manila to tackle energy crisis, South China Sea disputes

ASEAN leaders will meet in Manila from November 15 to 17 for a summit that also hosts U.S. President Donald Trump and other world heads of state. The gathering comes as Southeast Asian economies feel the shock of oil shortages triggered by the U.S.–Israel war over Iran and the broader U.S.–China rivalry. The Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia have declared national energy emergencies, while millions of ASEAN citizens work in the Middle East where the conflict threatens their safety and income.

The 11‑member bloc—Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Brunei, Vietnam, Laos, Myanmar, Cambodia and East Timor—seeks a single market but cannot impose binding decisions on its members. Its 694 million people represent 8.4 % of the world’s population. The current energy crisis has pushed the region to look beyond Middle‑Eastern suppliers, while the U.S. tariff war has slapped ASEAN with 10–12.5 % duties since President Trump’s second term, prompting the bloc to strengthen ties elsewhere. The summit will also address trade, security and the impact of the war on the Strait of Malacca, a narrow waterway that could become a flashpoint if the Gulf conflict spreads.

South‑China‑Sea disputes remain a core issue. China and four ASEAN members—Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam—along with Taiwan, have fought decades of territorial standoffs over an 800‑km (500‑mile) contested border and sacred religious sites such as the Preah Vihear temple. Negotiations for a “code of conduct” began in 2005 but stalled, only to be revived in 2023 with a draft expected this year. Malaysia has led ten rounds of talks, the latest in October, but analysts doubt a final agreement will be reached at this summit, meaning the dialogue will likely continue into next year.