Are Hormuz ships more willing to defy Iran or the US? What the data shows

United States President Donald Trump has insisted that his military remains in control of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, and suggested this past week that the US might even seek to take charge of the territory.

On Tuesday, he also claimed that the strait was open for vessels to pass through, despite Iranian insistence that the waterway was closed for all ships that don’t seek Tehran’s approval before transit, and even though the US itself has a naval blockade in place targeting all Iran-linked ships.

At the same time, Trump has threatened to bomb Oman, a US ally that sits across the Strait of Hormuz from Iran – the waterway lies in the maritime territories of Iran and Oman – in an apparent bid to dissuade Muscat from striking any deal with Tehran to jointly manage the strait.

So who really is in control of the Strait of Hormuz at the moment?

Amid the claims and counterclaims from both sides, actual data on the traffic passing through the waterway offers vital clues. We break it down.

Before the war started, the Strait of Hormuz was largely considered a single waterway, without distinctions between “Iranian” or “Omani” routes, and ships entered and exited along well‑established traffic separation schemes, mostly along the central part of the strait.

Decisions on how ships navigated the strait were determined by port calls, charter terms and safety rather than fear of military consequences.

Since the war has spiked tensions between the US and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway has been fractured into two main routes. Tehran insists on the northern, Iranian route, hugging Iran’s coast near Larak Island and Qeshm Island, and feeding directly into Iranian ports and offshore terminals.